Atmospheric blocking keeps the Central-South region dry and favors heat in the second half of July.

The second half of July began under the influence of an atmospheric blocking pattern over south-central Brazil, favoring dry weather, rising temperatures, and hindering rainfall in the country's main producing regions. At the same time, the El Niño phenomenon is expected to intensify rainfall in the South in the coming days, with a risk of storms in Rio Grande do Sul. According to the new DATAGRO VIP ReportThe week began with low temperatures across much of Brazil following the passage of a cold front, which brought rain to the South and southern Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo. The polar air mass also favored frost in higher altitude areas between northern Rio Grande do Sul and southern Paraná. The report highlights that July has seen above-average rainfall in the Southern Region, reflecting the strengthening of El Niño. Last week, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific reached [a certain level]. +1.3°C, characterizing an event of moderate intensity. Up to the first half of the month, the grain-producing areas of the region accumulated, on average, 40.5 mm, equivalent to 36% of the historical average for July. Santa Catarina concentrates the largest volumes, with 133.4 mm, or 91% of the state's climatological normal. The rains have also been delaying the winter corn harvest in Paraná. By July 10th, the work had reached 19% of the area, below the average of the last five years (28.4%) and that recorded in the same period of 2025 (42%) and 2024 (70%For the next few days, DATAGRO projects a rapid rise in temperatures due to the influence of warm winds coming from the north. Maximum temperatures could reach between 34°C and 36°C in Paraguay, Brazilian Midwest and the Matopiba region. Starting Saturday (18), the approach of a new cold front should cause storms over the South of the country, mainly in Rio Grande do Sul, where accumulations could reach 300 mm between Saturday and Monday (20), increasing the risk of flooding, inundations and landslides. The following week, the rains should advance to Santa Catarina and southern Paraná, with volumes exceeding 100 mmIn the Southeast, the atmospheric blocking should maintain stable weather over the next few days. The first half of July recorded only 5.4 mm rainfall, on average. Maximum temperatures may vary between 30°C and 32°C…especially in the state of São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region. The winter corn harvest is also behind schedule, reaching… 10% of the area in São Paulo and 15% In Minas Gerais, both are below historical averages. In the Central-West region, the scenario is also one of predominantly dry weather. The region has accumulated only 5.0 mm Rain is expected in July, while temperatures could exceed 34°C in the coming days. Mato Grosso has already harvested. 62% of the winter corn area, close to the historical average, while Goiás (13%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (8%Rainfall continues at a slower than normal pace. In the Matopiba region, the forecast remains for the continuation of the dry pattern observed since May, with no expectation of significant rainfall in the short term, a scenario considered typical for this time of year. For more details, please visit [website/link]. analysis section of the DATAGRO Portal.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.