Brazilian beef exports registered robust gains in the first two months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, reflecting significant advances in both volume and value of sales to its main destinations, including the United States, the European Union, Chile, and Russia, in addition to China, which remains our largest buyer. The strong sales pace at the beginning of the year is a strong indication that the safeguard measures imposed by China on beef imports should have a reduced impact on Brazil this year. The United States, the second largest buyer of Brazilian beef, maintains a high supply deficit, with an estimated need for imports of 2.5 million tons in 2026 (according to information from the United States Department of Agriculture – USDA) and a strong dependence on imports. Furthermore, other markets such as Chile, Russia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia also showed significant growth in beef imports from Brazil in the first two months of the year. The war in the Middle East, depending on its extent and implications, could be a detrimental factor to Brazilian exports this year, due, for example, to increased logistics costs. However, the effect on Brazilian exports to that market is limited, since the Middle East accounted for 6.65% of beef export revenues in 2025 (US$ 1.22 billion) and 8.5% in the first two months of 2026 (US$ 244 million). It is also necessary to consider that Brazil is undergoing a change in its livestock cycle, with increased value for replacement animals and reduced female slaughter, which should result in a lower supply of beef in 2026 to meet export demand. Furthermore, there are still good prospects for consolidating and opening new markets, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea, which should contribute to maintaining strong demand for Brazilian beef in the international market. Therefore, even considering a scenario in which Brazil exhausts its share of China's quota (free from the 55% tariff), the trend is that increased demand in other markets and supply-side restrictions will maintain strong demand for animals to meet this year's beef exports. In January and February, sales of fresh and processed meat, as well as edible offal and other bovine by-products, accounted for revenues of US$2.865 billion (+39%) and the movement of 557,240 tons (+22%). In 2025, revenue was US$2.065 billion and movement reached 455,970 tons. The information comes from the Brazilian Association of Meat Processing Plants (ABRAFRIGO), which compiled data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC). According to the entity, in February 2026, exports from the sector reached US$ 1.449 billion (+39.57%) with shipments of 279,260 tons exported (+28.64%). In 2025, February had revenue of US$ 1.038 billion with shipments of 217,080 tons. China remains the main destination for Brazilian beef in the first two months of the year, registering growth of 36% compared to the same period of the previous year, to US$ 1.221 billion, with shipments of 223,700 tons (+21.7%). China's share of total exports decreased to 42.6% in the first two months of 2026, compared to 43.4% in the same period of 2025. When considering only sales of fresh beef, China's share was 46.5% in the first two months of 2026, compared to 48.6% in the first two months of 2025, highlighting the relative growth of other markets. Average export prices for fresh beef to China increased by 12% in the first two months of 2026, compared to the first two months of the previous year, reaching US$ 5,461 per ton. Sales of fresh beef to the United States, the second-largest foreign buyer, grew 97.3% in the first two months of 2026, reaching US$379 million, while the volume shipped increased by 60%, to 63,080 tons. In total, sales of beef and beef by-products to the United States reached US$448.7 million in the first two months of the year (+56.8%). Average export prices for fresh beef to the United States increased by 23.4% in the first two months of 2026, compared to the first two months of the previous year, reaching US$6,015 per ton. The European Union is another market that continues to grow steadily and with favorable prospects after the approval of the Trade Agreement with Mercosur. In the first two months of 2026, sales of fresh beef to the European Union grew by 24.6% in revenue, to US$121.4 million, and by 18.8% in volume, to 14,170 tons. Average export prices for fresh beef to the European Union increased by 4.85% in the first two months of 2026 compared to the same period of the previous year, reaching US$8,568 per ton. In South America, Chile maintained a solid performance, with a 22.4% increase in imported volume, reaching 23,609 tons, while the value of purchases advanced by 29.3%, totaling approximately US$135.9 million. Russia, in turn, showed one of the most significant expansions among the 20 largest buyers, rising to fifth position. Brazilian beef imports grew 106.6% in volume, reaching 23,349 tons, while the value of purchases increased 132.3%, to approximately US$102.6 million, reflecting the strengthening of Brazil's presence in that market. Data from the first two months of 2026 point to a scenario of expansion in Brazilian beef exports, driven mainly by Asia, the Middle East, and emerging markets, while some specific destinations showed adjustments or occasional contractions. The result reinforces Brazil's role as one of the main global suppliers of beef protein in a context of still strong international demand. In total, 109 countries increased their imports, while another 42 reduced their purchases.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.