Morning Call Jun 03rd, 2026

NY July 2026 raw sugar fell 7 points in the latest session to US$ 14.38 c/lb. The market remains rangebound within the US$ 14–15 c/lb range, reflecting the absence of factors capable of significantly altering the current balance of fundamentals.
 

NY Sugar market continues to be pressured by the global Trade Flow surplus, while prospects for support from higher fuel prices in Brazil have weakened due to the maintenance of government subsidies.
 

NY sugar market attention remains focused on the El Niño and its potential impacts on production in India and Indonesia, as well as the risk of crushing disruptions during the peak of the crop in CS Brazil.
 

Brazil: according to DATAGRO Line-up estimates, sugar exports, excluding container shipments, totaled 2.103 mmt in May (-5.7% YoY), bringing the cumulative total since January to 9.324 mmt (-1.8% YoY).
 

China once again led purchases of Brazilian sugar in May, with 591 k mt (28.1%), followed by India (10.6%) and Iraq (9.2%).
 

Australia: the 26/27 crop began in the week ending May 24th, with cane crushing totaling 28 k mt (-14.9% YoY) and raw sugar production reaching 3.6 k mt (-8.2% YoY).
 

Australia: the ASM projects cane crushing of 30.243 mmt in the 26/27 crop (+5.9% YoY), while raw sugar production is estimated at 4.180 mmt (+6.5% YoY).
 

Brazil: the USTR concluded its investigation against Brazil and proposed an additional 25% tariff on a range of Brazilian products, including sugar and ethanol. The measure will be subject to a public hearing on July 6th and still requires final approval by President Donald Trump by July 15th.
 

Brazil: in the case of sugar, the proposal renews concerns after the tariffs imposed in 2025 significantly reduced Brazilian shipments to the U.S.
 

Brazil: ethanol is considered one of the primary targets of the investigation, amid allegations of a lack of tariff reciprocity by Brazil, although the Brazilian government has indicated that negotiations with the U.S. remain ongoing.
 

Southeast Asia: monsoons have yet to advance into India, contrary to expectations from last week, although weather models indicate heavy rainfall over the coming days.
 

Southeast Asia: seasonal forecasts continue to point to below-average rainfall in India and Indonesia, a scenario that could limit cane development.