Brazilian coffee production is expected to reach 71.9 million 60 kg bags in the 2026/27 season, according to the first projection from the attaché. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Brasília, published this Monday (1st).
The volume represents a 14% increase compared to the 63 million bags estimated for 2025/26 and reflects the effects of the positive biennial cycle of coffee plantations, favorable weather conditions, and high international commodity prices.
Of the total forecast, Arabica is expected to account for 47.5 million bags, a 25% increase over the previous season. The USDA highlights that the combination of a favorable production cycle, expansion of cultivated areas, technological improvements in management, and more suitable weather conditions are supporting the strong recovery of the variety.
Robusta production is estimated at 24.4 million bags, slightly below the 25 million bags projected for 2025/26. According to the report, lower temperatures and periods of excessive rainfall in some producing regions limited the variety's productive potential.
THE DATAGRO Projects estimate Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest at 73 million bags, with 48 million bags of Arabica and 25 million bags of Robusta.
Harvest
The harvest for the new season began slowly in April, but picked up pace from mid-May onwards, within the normal timeframe for Brazil.
The USDA reports that isolated episodes of excessive heat and low rainfall in late 2025 and early 2026 did not compromise crop performance, which showed high productivity. However, there is concern about the potential impacts of the El Niño phenomenon on the 2027/28 crop, especially during the flowering and grain-filling stages.
Exports
Brazilian coffee exports are projected at 49.07 million bags in 2026/27, a 30% increase compared to the 37.87 million bags estimated for the previous cycle. This growth is supported by expectations of a record harvest, although low available stocks have limited shipments in early 2026.
Between January and April, Brazil exported 11.5 million bags, a volume 24% lower than that recorded in the same period last year. Germany, the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium remain the main destinations for Brazilian coffee.
Domestic consumption
Domestic consumption is expected to reach 22.39 million bags in 2026/27, a modest growth of 0.5%. According to the USDA, despite the recovery observed in the first months of 2026, following the fall in retail prices, food inflation and high coffee prices still limit a more robust increase in domestic demand.
Ending inventories
Ending stocks are estimated at 4.42 million bags, compared to 3.89 million in the previous season. Replenishment occurs with the arrival of the new harvest, but the availability of Arabica coffee remains tight in the short term. Furthermore, the recent appreciation of the real against the dollar reduces the competitiveness of exports and may lead producers to retain some of the stored volumes while waiting for better marketing opportunities.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.