The rise in rural debt is already putting pressure on the Brazilian credit market and raising concerns about the economic impacts of the crisis in the agricultural sector. Although the problem is still more concentrated in agribusiness, experts point out that the combination of high interest rates, weather events, increased production costs, and greater caution from banks could affect the financing of future harvests and impact other areas of the economy. Data from Serasa Experian shows that, in the third quarter of 2025, 8.3% of the rural population was in default, a gradual upward trend compared to the previous year. According to the company's head of agribusiness, Marcelo Pimenta, although the scenario does not yet represent a systemic risk to the financial system, the market is already operating with greater caution. "We observe an environment of greater caution in granting credit, but still without signs of systemic compromise," he stated.
Defaults in the agricultural sector increase caution in the financial market.
According to Pimenta, defaults are mainly concentrated in operations with financial institutions. Debts directly linked to the agricultural chain represent only 0.3%, indicating that commercial relations within the sector remain relatively preserved. However, this scenario worries banks, cooperatives, and sector entities. According to him, the financial market has reduced its appetite for risk in the face of an increase in requests for judicial reorganization in agribusiness. In 2025, the sector registered almost 2,000 requests for judicial reorganization, the highest volume in the historical series of Serasa Experian. "The credit market has a lower appetite for risk, especially in the face of a scenario of high interest rates, still pressured costs, and an increase in requests for judicial reorganization in the sector," he said.
Tightening credit conditions are already affecting even producers who are up-to-date with their payments.
According to the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), the tightening of credit conditions is already affecting even producers with good financial health. Guilherme Rios, technical advisor to the entity's National Agricultural Policy Commission, stated that financial institutions have begun demanding more guarantees and reducing financing limits, even for producers who are up-to-date on their payments. "The tightening of the credit market has also affected producers with good financial health. Even for this group, the guarantees required have increased considerably, and the limits offered are lower than in previous harvests," he said. According to the CNA, the numbers already reflect this contraction. The volume of financing for individuals at market rates fell from R$ 111.9 billion between March 2024 and March 2025 to R$ 90.5 billion between March 2025 and March 2026. The reduction was R$ 21.4 billion, equivalent to a 19.1% decrease. According to the organization's assessment, the current debt scenario is the result of a combination of factors, such as successive climate problems, volatility in the commodities market, high production costs, and failures in financial risk management. "In recent years, we have also faced record highs in the value of the dollar, wars, and new trade barriers, which have further aggravated volatility," explained Rios. According to him, despite the evolution of private financing in agribusiness, mechanisms to protect producers have not kept pace with the sector's growth. "The Brazilian financing model has been developing and improving every year. However, risk management has not kept up with this progress," he stated. The sector fears that, without faster debt renegotiation mechanisms, credit restrictions will compromise the 2026/2027 harvest, reduce investments in the field, and cause chain reactions in the Brazilian economy. “Many producers are already signaling a reduction in the technological package and a decrease in the planted area. This translates into lower productivity and less value generation in the field, with repercussions throughout the economy,” warned the CNA's technical advisor. Serasa Experian also assesses that a prolonged environment of default could reduce producers' investment capacity and increase the perception of risk throughout the agricultural chain. “Without more agile renegotiation mechanisms, the sector may face an even more cautious credit environment, with increased financial costs and reduced producer investment capacity for the next harvest,” concluded Pimenta.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.