Ethiopia is projected to expand coffee production and exports in 2026/27, according to USDA projections.

Ethiopia is expected to produce 12.1 million 60-kilogram bags of green coffee in the 2026/27 season (October-September), according to a report by the attaché of… United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) In Addis Ababa, the volume represents a 4.7% increase compared to the previous harvest. The harvested area is expected to reach 800,000 hectares, a 1.3% increase year-on-year. According to the document, the expected growth mainly reflects increased productivity, combined with the expansion of the cultivated area and favorable weather conditions, especially the regularity of rainfall. For the 2025/26 season, the USDA maintained its production estimate at 11.56 million bags. The report highlights that the current harvest was considered positive, although marked by productive differences between the country's coffee-growing regions, delays in harvesting, a lower supply of washed coffee, and record prices for coffee cherries. In terms of domestic consumption, Ethiopia is expected to consume 5 million bags in 2026/27, above the 4.5 million projected for 2025/26. According to the USDA, the increase in demand in urban and rural areas, as well as the popularization of coffee cultivation among young people, continues to drive domestic consumption. Ethiopian exports are expected to reach 7.13 million bags in 2026/27, a 2.4% increase compared to the revised estimate of 6.97 million bags in the current cycle. This expectation is supported by gradual productivity gains, improvements in crop management, and the continued renewal of aging coffee plantations in the main producing regions.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.