Uganda's coffee production in 2026/27 is projected to reach 7.16 million 60-kg bags, according to an estimate published this week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in Nairobi.
The volume represents an increase over the 7.095 million bags projected for 2025/26 and reflects the increase in harvested area, the expansion of plantations, and the entry into production of high-productivity coffee trees planted in recent years.
Of the total expected production, 6.025 million bags are projected to be Robusta and 1.135 million Arabica. The USDA highlights that international prices, still at historically high levels, continue to encourage producers to increase investments and expand cultivation, especially in regions where areas previously used for timber production are being converted to coffee, such as in Masaka.
The planted area is expected to grow from 590,000 hectares in 2025/26 to 595,000 hectares in 2026/27. The harvested area is expected to increase by approximately 0.85%, rising from 575,000 to 580,000 hectares.
Small producers dominate the sector and account for approximately 90% of national production, typically on farms between 0.5 and 2.5 hectares. Robusta represents about 80% of the country's total production and is mainly concentrated in the central region, although cultivation is also expanding northward. Arabica is produced in the higher altitude areas of eastern and western Uganda.
According to the report, favorable weather conditions, increased adoption of agronomic practices, and crop maturation have been sustaining productive growth. Even so, fertilizer use remains limited due to high costs, while pests such as stem borers and diseases like rust continue to put pressure on costs and productivity.
Ugandan coffee exports are projected to reach 6.83 million bags in 2026/27, a 1.9% increase, supported by strong demand from the European Union, the United States, and emerging markets in Asia. More than 98% of the coffee exported by the country is shipped in the form of green beans. The USDA also points to growth in sales to non-traditional markets, such as Morocco and China.
Domestic consumption is expected to rise modestly, from 330,000 to 335,000 bags, driven by urban growth, the expansion of coffee shops, and increased local roasting and soluble coffee production capacity.
Ending stocks were estimated at 329,000 bags in 2026/27, compared to 334,000 bags in 2025/26, remaining relatively low due to the accelerated pace of sales favored by high international prices.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.