Morning Call May 13th, 2026

NY raw sugar market traded without a clear direction this Tuesday, with July 2026 rising as much as 23 points during the session before settling with a more moderate gain of 10 points at US$ 15.01 c/lb.
 

NY #11: support continues to come from the strong ethanol-oriented mix in CS Brazil, reducing the immediate availability of VHP sugar for export, although this factor has already been priced in by the market.
 

Energy market continues to react to the deterioration of the ceasefire and the deadlock in peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with WTI June 2026 rising 4.2% on the day to US$ 102.18/bbl, while RBOB gasoline June 2026 gained 2.7% to US$ 3.6977/gallon.
 

Brazil: according to DATAGRO estimates, gasoline prices at Petrobras refineries remain 46.0% below import parity, maintaining pressure for a price adjustment by the state-controlled company.
 

Brazil: Petrobras is evaluating a gasoline price increase at its refineries, but is seeking to avoid losing market share to hydrous ethanol, which remains competitive across 49.0% of the Otto-cycle fuel market.
 

Brazil: containerized sugar exports totaled 133.6 k mt in March (-17.3% YoY), reaching 348.7 k mt in the first quarter of the year (-30.7% YoY).
 

Brazil: the share of shipments via containers fell to 45.5% of total bagged sugar exports through March, below the 48.4% recorded in the same period of 2025.
 

India: the government is evaluating a new timeline for expanding ethanol blending in gasoline, with E21 expected by 2027 and E25 by 2029, representing a more gradual rollout compared to the E20 program.
 

U.S.: the USDA revised downward its estimate for sugar production in the 25/26 crop year to 8.381 mmt, raw value, below the 8.525 mmt recorded in 24/25.
 

U.S.: the projection for imports was raised to 2.407 mmt, reflecting higher purchases through other import programs.
 

U.S.: with demand stable at 11.239 mmt, the stocks-to-use ratio increased from 15.2% to 16.1% in 25/26, although still below the 19.9% registered in 24/25.
 

U.S. sugar production was projected at 7.992 mmt in 26/27, while imports are expected to reach 2.957 mmt.
 

Mexico: the USDA revised upward its estimate for sugar production in 25/26 from 5.125 mmt to 5.179 mmt, raw value.