In the same month that Brazilian agriculture prepares for one of the largest coffee harvests in history, the scenario for producers is one of bitter tension between abundance and profitability. The projection of a record harvest, estimated at 66 million bags for 2026, raises an economic alarm: what happens when the country produces more coffee than the world seems willing to consume? The expected volume is a historical milestone, a gigantic leap compared to the 30 to 40 million bags harvested in the 2000s. This advance reflects decades of investment in technology, sophisticated soil management, and the resilience of the farmer. However, the celebration of productivity is accompanied by a real concern, dictated by the implacable law of supply and demand. “The scenario is a classic agribusiness paradox where record harvests and the risk of losses go hand in hand. When production rises too much, the international market doesn't absorb all the coffee immediately, and the excess drives down prices. For the producer, especially those who have invested in technology and expansion, this can be devastating,” explains Tiago Costa, professor of Agronomy at UniCesumar in Maringá. The equation becomes even more complex when production costs are factored in. In recent years, producers have seen prices for fertilizers, pesticides, labor, and fuel skyrocket. “The producer faces a difficult equation: ever-increasing expenses with ever-decreasing revenues. This requires planning, a search for efficiency, and even alternatives to reduce costs,” adds Costa.
Global context and local impact
Brazil, which already accounts for about a third of the world's coffee consumption, is feeling pressure from all sides. In addition to its own overproduction, competitors like Vietnam and Colombia also have high stock levels, saturating the global market and giving international buyers greater bargaining power. The result is a drop in the price per sack on the New York and London exchanges, which serve as a benchmark for the price paid to farmers here. This dynamic increases the risk of indebtedness, especially for small and medium-sized producers who have invested in financing to modernize their farms. "Access to credit, which was once an opportunity, can become a problem if there is no planning. The scenario of low prices can make it difficult to repay loans and even compromise the viability of farms," warns the professor from UniCesumar.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.