The CEAGESP price index rose +2.31% compared to a rise of +5.16% in the previous month. In the same period last year, the index had shown a decrease of -2.30%, and with this result, it ended the period showing an accumulated increase of +2.75% for the year and +0.74% over 12 months. In this context, the highlight was the Vegetable sector, the only one to show a negative price variation in the period. The sector broke the upward trend observed in the first quarter, benefiting from improved growing conditions: drier weather and greater solar incidence favored the management of leafy vegetables. In addition to the production factor, demand played a fundamental role in deflation. Holidays during the period reduced the pace of sales of high-turnover products, such as curly lettuce, which registered the largest price reduction in this food group. Sector Breakdown: The FRUIT sector rose +1.38% compared to a rise of +3.07% in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown a decrease of -1.88%, and with the result obtained, it ended the month with an accumulated decrease of -7.23% for the year and -0.66% over 12 months. Of the 49 items quoted in this basket of products, 47% showed a price increase. The main increases occurred in the prices of WATERMELON (+31.91%), PITAYA (+27.10%), PINEAPPLE (+22.60%), NIAGARA GRAPES (+22.46%) and IMPORTED PLUMS (+19.61%). The main decreases occurred in the prices of SWEET PASSION FRUIT (-33.38%), STAR FRUIT (-16.13%), AVOCADO (-13.30%), FUJI APPLES (-13.17%) and BAHIA ORANGE (-11.56%). Watermelon was the product that showed the most significant positive price variation in the analyzed period. The combination of below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures in the main producing regions reduced the monthly supply of the fruit at the São Paulo Terminal Market (ETSP). The lower availability of large-sized watermelons with good Brix (sweetness) content increased competition among wholesale buyers. This factor, coupled with strong demand for the product, contributed to the price increase. At ETSP, the item closed the period quoted at R$ 2.45/kg, with a price variation of +21.7% over the last 12 months. The reduction in the monthly supply of pitaya reflects the end of the harvest, mainly in the Southeast region. The heat and irregular rainfall in the main producing areas hampered the final harvest. Water stress, which ultimately harmed the quality of the remaining fruit, contributed to the price increase. April was characterized by the end of the regular harvest and the completion of the late-harvest Niagara grape harvest. The final stage of the fruit cycle was marked by lower productivity due to the depletion of cold reserves and low water storage for bunch ripening, resulting in a reduction in the monthly supply volume and, consequently, higher prices. According to projections from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), the expectation for the coming months is the formation of the El Niño climate phenomenon. For the Southeast region, the trend is for an even greater reduction in rainfall and persistent heat. This scenario could keep fruit prices on an upward trajectory, especially for sensitive fruits from temperate and tropical climates. The VEGETABLE sector rose +6.11% compared to a +22.87% increase in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown a decrease of -7.00%, and with the result obtained, it ended the month with an accumulated +60.36% for the year and +20.19% over 12 months. Of the 32 items quoted in this basket of products, 56% showed a price increase. The main price increases were seen in MAXIXE (+40.61%), CARROT (+40.43%), OKRA (+37.17%), COMMON CUCUMBER (+22.14%), and CARMEM TOMATO (+18.94%). The main price decreases were seen in ITALIAN ZUCCHINI (-42.94%), EGGPLANT (-28.38%), YAM (-21.05%), PINK SWEET POTATO (-16.43%), and TARÁ (-15.13%). The Vegetable sector registered a strong slowdown compared to the previous month. Despite the cooling, the result maintains the upward pressure on prices, with the climatic context being the predominant factor in price behavior in the sector. The combination of heat and irregular rainfall accelerated the evapotranspiration of vegetables, especially among the most sensitive ones. Maxixe is a crop highly sensitive to soil moisture and thermal stress. The combination of below-average rainfall and high temperatures in the main producing regions during April reduced the monthly supply of the legume, pushing prices to their highest level of the year. Carrots were one of the items that most impacted the inflation observed in the Vegetable sector, repeating the trend already seen in the previous month. The price surge is linked to the lower supply of higher-quality roots, aggravated by excessive water in the summer, which caused deformities and the so-called "mela" (a term used to describe a disease affecting the fruit and vegetables). In April, the monthly supply volume remained restricted at ETSP (São Paulo's wholesale market), especially for carrots from Minas Gerais, with reports of small size and a high incidence of damaged roots. The heat without adequate water compensation caused the rapid hardening of okra fibers, resulting in a harvest of more fibrous specimens, which lose commercial value and are quickly discarded. The reduction in the monthly supply volume of the product generated price pressure on lots that met the quality standards required by the market. The monthly supply volume of common cucumbers at ETSP was negatively impacted by the heat, which accelerated the production cycle and compromised field productivity. Unfavorable production conditions in producing regions, mainly São Paulo and Minas Gerais, resulted in higher prices for the product. In the capital's wholesale market, the item closed the period quoted at R$ 2.88/kg, with a price variation of +127.3% over the last 12 months. The monthly supply volume of Carmem tomatoes, a variety highly appreciated for its intense color and sweet taste, was directly affected by the transition between the summer harvest, which slowed down, and the winter harvest, which is still in its early stages. Some producing regions are nearing the end of the summer season, while other areas are still in the initial harvest phase, with low productivity. The VEGETABLE sector fell -2.80% compared to a rise of +4.29% in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown a decrease of -11.91%, and with the result obtained, it ended the month with an accumulated increase of +33.54% for the year and +3.45% over 12 months. Of the 39 items quoted in this basket of products, 64% showed a price decrease. The main decreases occurred in the prices of CRISP LETTUCE (-27.11%), KALE (-23.12%), RADISH (-17.94%), BROCCOLI (-16.86%) and TURNIP (-16.18%). The main increases occurred in the prices of PARSLEY (+22.30%), GREEN/SMOOTH CABBAGE (+16.50%), CHIVES (+16.23%), CILANTRO (+14.24%) and PARIS MUSHROOMS (+7.39%). After a first quarter of significant increases, the vegetable sector registered a reduction of -2.80%, a movement driven by both favorable weather conditions for production and a cooling of demand. However, despite the monthly deflation, the sector's price indicator accumulates a significant increase for the year and a moderate variation in the last 12 months. The drier weather conditions and above-average temperatures during the period were beneficial for the production of leafy vegetables and other short-cycle vegetables. The decrease in rainfall combined with good solar incidence favored field management, quality, and the availability of various varieties. Crops such as broccoli and turnips presented a classic scenario of supply pressure. The high monthly supply volume of these products pushed prices down. In turn, curly lettuce, collard greens, and radishes experienced significant price drops, even with a lower monthly supply volume. The explanation for this lies on the demand side, impacted by the holidays that occurred during the period, which slowed the pace of sales of these products in the wholesale market. Keeping all else constant, the trend for the coming months is for prices in the sector to remain under control as autumn consolidates and conditions for growing vegetables remain favorable. The MISCELLANEOUS sector rose +5.95% compared to a +12.77% increase in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown an increase of +5.87%, and with this result, it ended the month with an accumulated +21.30% for the year and -12.58% over 12 months. Of the 11 items quoted in this basket of products, 45% showed a price increase. The main increases occurred in the prices of WASHED POTATOES (+21.82%), BRUSHED POTATOES (+18.88%), NATIONAL ONIONS (+16.20%), ASTERIX POTATOES (+14.56%) and DRIED COCONUTS (+12.19%). The main price drops occurred in SKINLESS PEANUTS (-7.10%), WHITE EGGS (-6.67%), RED EGGS (-5.12%), DOMESTIC GARLIC (-4.85%), and PEANUTS WITH SKIN (-1.12%). Even with the slowdown observed during the period, prices in the Miscellaneous sector remained pressured by the production and marketing situation of domestic potatoes and onions. The increase in potato prices is mainly attributed to the slower pace of production and completion of the wet season harvest (the so-called "rainy season harvest") and the gradual start of the dry season harvest (known as the "dry season harvest"). This seasonal change in production creates a supply vacuum, resulting in a natural reduction in the volume offered on the market, which ends up exerting upward pressure on prices. In addition, adverse weather conditions, such as heavy rains at the beginning of planting, compromised productivity in certain producing regions. According to market information regarding domestic onions, the price increase reflects a significant reduction in planted area in important producing regions of the country, a consequence of the financial challenges faced by producers in previous harvests. Additionally, there was a reduction in supply due to the seasonality of the crop, contributing to a decrease in the monthly supply volume of the product at the ETSP (São Paulo Wholesale Market). Even the influx of imported onions was not enough to contain the price increase. The price increase for dried coconut observed during the period was influenced by two factors. The Northeast region, the origin of a large part of this product sold wholesale in the capital of São Paulo, faced an intense rainy period in the first quarter of this year, which hampered harvesting and availability. In turn, the industrial sector of grated coconut, coconut milk, and coconut oil intensified its purchases in large production centers to meet the food demand for mid-year festivities, which generated competition with the wholesale market. The FISH sector rose +3.09% compared to a drop of -0.97% in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown a decrease of -1.50%, and with the result obtained, it ended the month with an accumulated increase of +4.63% for the year and +4.36% over 12 months. Of the 30 items quoted in this basket of products, 57% showed a price increase. The main increases occurred in the prices of XARÉU (+43.83%), ROBALO (+19.77%), MANJUBA (+16.23%), BONITO (+9.28%) and IMPORTED SALMON (+7.61%). The main decreases occurred in the prices of LAGES SARDINES (-37.59%), ANCHOVIES (-30.49%), WHITE HAKE (-7.69%), FRESH SARDINES (-7.60%) and MACKEREL (-4.57%). Oceanic and coastal species dominated the list of the largest price increases, reflecting the considerable reductions in the monthly supply volume. Jack crevalle and bonito are pelagic fish whose schools migrate according to water temperature and food availability. The reduction in the monthly supply of these items suggests that the schools are moving away from the Brazilian coast towards deeper, colder waters, possibly due to surface warming of the sea caused by thermal anomalies that occurred in April. Because it is a small fish caught mainly by coastal artisanal fishing, the availability of anchovies is extremely sensitive to local weather conditions. The passage of an extratropical cyclone in April caused strong winds and rough seas on the southern and southeastern coast of Brazil. These adverse weather conditions prevented small and medium-sized fishing vessels from leaving, resulting in a reduction in the monthly supply and, consequently, a rise in the price of the product.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.