THE DATAGRO released this Wednesday (6) a climate report for Southeast Asia during the period of May 6-16, 2026.
Forecast by region
For the next 10 days, the rainy pattern is expected to persist across much of Southeast Asia.
In Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia, the expected rainfall totals range between 50 and 100 mm. In Vietnam and the Philippines, rainfall tends to be less intense, with volumes between 20 and 30 mm.
In India, rainfall totals are expected to show greater regional variability, with more significant rainfall in the south of the country, potentially exceeding 100 mm in Tamil Nadu, while in northeastern India the predicted volumes are more modest, between 20 and 30 mm.
Asian monsoons are approaching.
"The Asian monsoons officially begin in June, but throughout May the rains start to intensify in regions facing prolonged drought," the document says.
During the first half of the month, rainfall is expected to be concentrated mainly in southern India, while the rest of the country is likely to experience below-average rainfall.
In Thailand, rainfall is expected to be below normal in sugarcane-producing areas, while in rubber-growing regions, volumes should remain close to the climatological average.
El Niño in formation
In April, sea surface temperatures rose, remaining neutral, with SST reaching +0.4°C in the last week. The formation of El Niño in the second half of the year is practically certain, with a 61% chance between May and July. NOAA indicates a 25% chance of the event reaching very strong intensity at the end of the year.
In Southeast Asia, the main impact is manifested by rising temperatures and reduced rainfall in countries such as India, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
Impact on crops
In India, the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest is drawing to a close, with sugar production reaching 27.53 million tons by April 30, compared to 25.65 million tons the previous year.
In Thailand, due to falling sugarcane prices and the contrast with cassava prices, producers are reducing the planted area for the 2026/27 crop season.
DATAGRO revised its estimate for Thailand's sugar production in 2026/27 from 11.0 to 10.3 million tons, with a further downward bias.
For more information, visit the VIP Report in analysis section of DATAGRO Portal.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.