Morning Call May 05th, 2026

NY raw sugar market regained momentum in recent days and extended its upward trend for the third consecutive session this Monday, with July 2026 rising 34 points to US$ 15.29 c/lb.
 

NY #11: the recent price trajectory has been supported by higher oil and fuel prices, as well as a strong ethanol production mix in Center-South Brazil, reducing prompt availability of VHP sugar for export.
 

NY #11: the sustainability of the current uptrend will largely depend on potential gasoline price adjustments by Petrobras and on how long mills in CS Brazil maintain this higher allocation toward ethanol.
 

NY #11: physical delivery against May 2026 contract totaled 483,638 mt (or 9,520 lots), the lowest volume for the contract since 2022. Of the total, 365 k mt originated from Brazil, followed by Central America (105 k mt) and Mexico (14 k mt).
 

Brazil: hydrous ethanol consumption reached 1.798 billion liters in March (+1.1% YoY), totaling 4.965 billion liters in 1Q26 (-6.8% YoY), according to ANP data.
 

Brazil: the share of the flex-fuel fleet using hydrous ethanol fell by 2.3 p.p. YoY to 26.9% in March, averaging 26.3% YTD, indicating consumption still below potential.
 

Brazil: regular gasoline (E30) consumption reached 4.173 billion liters in March (+12.8% YoY), a record for the month, totaling 11.854 billion liters YTD (+3.4% YoY), also a record for the period.
 

Brazil: total Otto-cycle fuel consumption reached 5.432 billion liters (gasoline equivalent) in March (+9.8% YoY), totaling 15.330 billion liters since January (+4.4% YoY).
 

Brazil: ethanol (anhydrous + hydrous) share in the Brazilian Otto-cycle fuel market rose 0.8 p.p. to 46.2% in March, averaging 45.9% in 1Q26.
 

Brazil: diesel (B15) consumption reached 6.299 billion liters in March (+10.5% YoY), a record for the month, totaling 16.823 billion liters YTD (+2.8% YoY), also a record for the period.
 

Mexico: cane crushing reached 40.83 mmt in the 25/26 crop through April 25th (+0.9% YoY), while sugar production totaled 4.42 mmt in the period (+4.7% YoY).
 

Paraguay’s president Santiago Peña signed a decree implementing the Ethanol Law, requiring that at least 50% of the ethanol in the fuel blend be derived from sugarcane.