Indonesia's coffee production is expected to decline for the second consecutive year in 2026, pressured by excessive rainfall affecting the country's main producing regions.
According to an update from the global trading company Sucafina, published at the end of last week, adverse weather has compromised the productivity of both Arabica and Robusta coffee, in addition to hindering harvesting and drying operations.
In Sumatra, the main producing region, the Arabica harvest showed atypical behavior: the volume harvested between October and December 2025 was significantly lower than that recorded between March and May 2026.
The result reflects the impacts of floods and landslides at the end of last year, which also hampered access to the Aceh region. Meanwhile, on islands like Java, Bali, Sulawesi, and Flores, the schedule remains within the historical pattern, but with expectations of lower rainfall volumes between April and August.
In the case of robusta, harvesting in low and medium altitude areas of Sumatra is already underway, while higher altitude regions are expected to begin harvesting between May and June. As with arabica, the harvest is expected to be smaller due to intense and persistent rainfall, which has also posed additional challenges to drying the beans.
The effects are already visible in foreign trade. Exports of robusta from Sumatra fell to 7,304 thousand tons in March, a 68% drop compared to the previous year, according to customs data released today (4).
Furthermore, widespread flooding could reduce the country's shipments by up to 15% in the 2025/26 crop year, according to the president of the Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industry Association, Irfan Anwar.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.