Focus Bulletin: Market raises 2026 IPCA projection to 4.89%

THE Central Bank (BC) released this Monday (4) a new edition of Focus Bulletin, with financial market projections collected up to last Thursday (30).

Inflation (IPCA)

The median of the projections for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) The 2026 estimate rose from 4.86% to 4.89%. The 2027 estimate remained stable at 4.00%.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The projection for growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) This year it was maintained at 1.85%, while for 2027 it fell from 1.80% to 1.75%.

Exchange

The market projects the dollar to be quoted at R$ 5.25 at the end of 2026 – the same estimate as the previous week. For 2027, the projection fell R$ 0.05, to R$ 5.30.

Selic rate

The market maintained its estimates for the basic interest rate At the end of 2026 and 2027, the rates are projected to be 13.00% per year and 11.00% per year, respectively. Last week, the Central Bank (BC) cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 14.50% per year.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.