Mexican sugar production is expected to reach 5.45 million tons in gross value in the 2026/27 crop year, a volume 1% higher than estimated for the 2025/26 cycle, according to a new annual report from the attaché. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Mexico City.
The projection reflects the gradual recovery of the area planted with sugarcane, favored by the seasonal rains recorded in 2025, after two years marked by drought in important producing regions. The harvested area is estimated at 738,000 hectares, with sugarcane production projected at 47.9 million tons.
Despite the progress, the report warns of limitations linked to increased production costs, especially fertilizers and other agricultural inputs, which could affect the productivity of sugarcane fields.
For the 2025/26 harvest, the estimated production is 5.40 million tons, 7% higher than the previous cycle. CONADESUCA, the Mexican industry body, has an even more optimistic forecast of 5.58 million tons.
On the demand side, the USDA projects a 1% drop in Mexican sugar consumption in 2026/27, due to the initial impact of the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS). Imports are expected to decline by 33%, given higher tariffs and increased domestic supply, while exports may grow by 2%, with sales to the international market remaining stable.
The report reinforces the prospect of recovery for the Mexican sugar sector, albeit under pressure from costs and climate volatility.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.