China’s cotton production is expected to fall 4.5% in the 2026/27 crop year.

China's cotton production is projected at 7.2 million tons in the 2026/27 crop year, according to the agricultural attaché. from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) In Beijing, the volume represents a 4.5% drop compared to the previous cycle, reflecting changes in the country's agricultural policy, with reduced cultivation in marginal areas. Despite the contraction, the Chinese government is expected to maintain the target price program for cotton in the Xinjiang region, the country's main production hub. This measure aims to preserve self-sufficiency in domestic supply, while production outside the region tends to fall more sharply. For 2026/27, cotton consumption is estimated at 8.4 million tons, supported by expectations of economic growth and incentives for domestic consumption. The textile and apparel sector is also expected to maintain strong demand, focusing on expanding exports. Chinese imports are projected at 1.5 million tons in 2026/27, a slight increase compared to the reduced levels of the previous crop. For the 2025/26 season, the USDA The report revised its production forecast to 7.5 million tons (compared to 6.8 million in 2024/25), raised its consumption forecast to 8.25 million tons, and increased its import projection to 1.4 million tons, a 24% increase year-on-year. Furthermore, the document highlights the current 10% tariff on US cotton as a limiting factor for imports of the American product, influencing the dynamics of global cotton trade.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.