Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market posted slight gains this Wednesday, with May 2026 rising 14 points to US$ 13.57 c/lb, in a technical rebound following recent declines, amid the lack of fresh fundamental news.
China: sugar production is expected to reach 12.40 mmt in the 25/26 crop (Oct/Sep), compared to 11.11 mmt in 24/25.
China: over the past two years, the country has managed ending stocks equivalent to 21–22% of domestic consumption, which remains broadly stagnant at around 15.90 mmt.
China: the decline in the stocks-to-use ratio coincides with the inauguration of COFCO´s terminal at the port of Santos (Brazil), reducing vessel waiting times to load VHP sugar bound to China.
China: sugar prices in NY are expected to remain as low as necessary to attract Chinese demand; currently, import parity for Brazilian VHP sugar is positive at 14%.
Brazil: sugar shipment nomination pace declined from 29 to 27 vessels, with a combined volume of 1.116 mmt (down 17.9% YoY). Bangladesh leads destinations (25.3%), followed by Canada (15.3%) and China (15.2%), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
Brazil: scheduled maintenance at CLI 16/17 terminal increased waiting time for berthing from 21 to 25 days, well above the 3 days observed at the same period in 2025.
Brazil: sugar exports totaled 738 k mt through the third week of April, with a daily average of 62 k mt, down 20.6% compared to the daily average of April 2025.
El Salvador: cane crushing for the 25/26 crop reached 6.221 mmt as of April 19th (up 7.2% YoY), while sugar production totaled 732 k mt (up 11.1% YoY).
U.S. ethanol production declined 7.1% WoW last week to 1.040 mbpd (up 0.7% YoY), while ethanol stocks increased 0.9% WoW to 26.948 million barrels (up 0.9% YoY).
U.S. gasoline demand remained broadly stable last week at 9.055 mbpd (down 3.8% YoY).
Philippines: cane crushing for the 25/26 crop totaled 18.61 mmt as of April 5th (down 4.9% YoY), while raw sugar production reached 1.47 mmt (down 6.3% YoY).
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO Grains Line-up.