Cocoa received by the national industry grew 61% in the first quarter.

After two years of lower availability of cocoa beans in the Brazilian market, receipts grew significantly again at the beginning of 2026. Data compiled by SindiDados – Campos Consultores and released by the National Association of Cocoa Processing Industries (AIPC) show that receipts totaled 28,605 tons in the first quarter, a volume 61.1% higher than that recorded in the same period of 2025 (17,758 tons). Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 (59,737 tons), there is a decrease of 52.1%, a behavior expected due to the seasonality of the harvest. “Although there is growth compared to the same period of the previous year, the volume observed in the first quarter is still significantly lower than that of the main harvest,” says Anna Paula Losi, executive president of AIPC. :: Receipts remain concentrated in Bahia and Pará. Looking at the data by origin, the data from the first quarter of 2026 confirm the strong regional concentration of Brazilian production. Bahia and Pará together accounted for 96.5% of national milk production during the period. Bahia led with 16,208 tons (56.7% of the total), a 38.9% increase compared to the same period in 2025, although with a slight reduction in its share. Pará totaled 11,388 tons (39.8%), representing a significant increase of 169.7% compared to the previous year, expanding its weight in national production. The other states continue with residual participation. Espírito Santo registered 809 tons (-53.6%), while Rondônia totaled 177 tons (+48.7%). This situation reinforces that the Brazilian production structure remains highly concentrated and little altered, with two states accounting for practically the entirety of the national supply. :: Milling Remains Stable Despite Increased Supply Despite increased intake, milling in the first quarter of 2026 totaled 51,715 tons, a volume 0.8% lower than the same period in 2025 (52,135 tons) and practically stable compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 (-0.2%). This data highlights a mismatch between supply and processing: there is more raw material available, but this does not translate into increased industrial activity. “Brazil begins 2026 with greater availability of cocoa, but without an equivalent reaction in milling and marketing. This shift shows that, during this period, the main limitations to industrial activity are demand and competitiveness in international markets. Even with greater supply and lower imports, milling remains stable, indicating that the determining factor is the ability to compete and meet the demand for derivatives in domestic and foreign markets,” says Anna Paula Losi, executive president of AIPC. Imports decline due to increased domestic supply. In foreign trade, Brazil imported 18,068 tons of almonds in the first quarter of 2026, a 37.5% reduction compared to the same period in 2025 (28,920 tons). This movement occurs in parallel with the increase in domestic receipts and reflects the natural market adjustment in the face of greater domestic availability and a drop in demand for derivatives, which was already observed in the previous year. AIPC emphasizes that this variation does not result from import restriction measures, but rather from the natural market adjustment in the face of almond supply conditions and demand for derivatives. :: Exports of cocoa derivatives remain below 2025 levels. Exports of cocoa derivatives totaled 12,557 tons in the first quarter of 2026, a decrease of 15.4% compared to the same period in 2025 (14,840 tons) and 3.1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Argentina remained the main destination, accounting for 47% of the exported volume, followed by the United States (15%) and Mexico (8%). “The export performance reinforces a scenario of more moderate demand and the need for competitiveness. Without this, Brazil loses ground in the international market and increases the idle capacity of the milling industry,” says Anna Paula Losi. Exports of cocoa beans remained residual in the first quarter of 2026, with only 184 tons shipped, confirming that Brazil is not a significant exporter of raw materials and depends on industrialization to sustain its insertion in the international market. Imports of refined products totaled 12,166 tons, a volume practically stable compared to the same period in 2025 (-2.4%). According to Anna Paula, "this movement indicates competitive pressure on the national industry, with part of the demand met by imported products due to costs and market conditions." According to the executive, "the data from the first quarter reinforce that the main limiting factor for industrial activity at this moment is demand, not access to raw materials. In this context, adopting measures that disregard the operational and commercial dynamics of the sector can generate counterproductive effects, compromising the industry's competitiveness precisely at a time of recovery in domestic supply. The result tends to be a reduction in the absorption capacity of national cocoa, a contraction in exports, and an increase in industrial idleness, with negative impacts throughout the entire production chain."

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.