The 2026/27 coffee harvest is about to begin in Brazil, with a virtually unanimous view among market players: production will be a record.
After years marked by adverse weather conditions and a more restricted supply, the expectation for this season is for a consistent recovery, with volumes that will surpass recent historical records and reinforce Brazil's leading role in the global commodity market.
The most recent estimate of DATAGRO The report points to a total production of 73 million bags in the 2026/27 crop year, an increase of 18.6% compared to the 2025/26 season. This growth will be driven mainly by the advance of Arabica, whose production should reach 48 million bags, compared to 36.5 million bags in the previous cycle. Robusta production, however, will remain stable at 25 million bags, according to the consultancy.
Although the production environment is positive, the performance of Brazilian exports remains shrouded in uncertainty. The set of factors influencing shipments ranges from producer behavior to geopolitical issues and logistical limitations.
For the CEO of Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé)According to Marcos Antonio Matos, the current environment demands caution. "We are discussing an environment with many variables, with geopolitical risks and tensions that increase the unpredictability of exports," he states.
Well-capitalized producers are holding back supply.
Brazil exported 3.04 million bags of coffee in March of this year, a 7.8% decrease compared to the same month in 2025, according to data from Cecafé. In the first quarter of the year, Brazilian shipments of the commodity fell 21.2% year-on-year to 8.46 million bags.
One of the main elements that helps explain the current dynamics of Brazilian exports is the attitude of the producers. Due to the recent strong appreciation of coffee in the international market, many coffee growers are entering 2026 in a more comfortable financial position.
This scenario allows a significant portion of previous production to be retained, awaiting even more attractive prices. This strategy, while understandable from an individual perspective, has direct impacts on the supply available for export.
“There is a percentage of the last harvest that has not yet been sold. The producer is capitalized and expects more favorable prices,” explains Matos. In the accumulated total for the first nine months of the 2025/26 marketing year (from July 2025 to March 2026), Brazilian coffee exports totaled 29.09 million bags, a volume 21.2% lower than that recorded in the same period of the previous cycle.
In addition to reducing immediate availability, warns the director of Cecafé, this withholding affects Brazil's liquidity in the global market, hindering the country's ability to promptly meet international demand.
Exports to the US have not yet recovered.
Brazil's recent loss of competitiveness in the international market also reflects problems faced in strategic markets, especially the United States. Historically the main destination for Brazilian coffee, the US has significantly reduced its purchases after the imposition of tariffs last year.
Even with the subsequent review of these tariff measures by Washington in the last two months of 2025, trade flows have still not returned to previous levels.
“During that period of high tariffs, many American companies adapted their quality control departments and started buying from other countries. There was even a moment [last year] when Brazil was the only coffee supplier with the surcharge. All the others had already solved their problems; we were the last,” recalls Matos.
In the first quarter of this year, Brazil exported 936,600 bags of coffee to the United States, a volume 48.3% lower compared to the first three months of 2025.
However, according to the president of Cecafé, Marcio Ferreira, this scenario should be reversed starting in July. “The impact of the tariff increase continues because last year there was a lot of contract liquidation, many of which were reallocated to the next harvest. Shipments to the United States will improve from the second half of the year,” he projects.
What could hinder this recovery in coffee shipments to the United States are two open investigations in… Section 301 of the United States Trade Act applies against the Brazilian product.
The mechanism allows the American government to investigate and retaliate against countries with trade practices considered unfair, irrational, or that restrict US trade. One ongoing investigation exclusively accuses Brazil's coffee production sector of deforestation and disrespect for labor conditions; the other, which also involves other countries, is investigating facilitated mechanisms for purchasing inputs, which generates commercial competitiveness.
"We are keeping a close eye on this. The results of these investigations should be released between May and June," says Matos.
Geopolitics puts pressure on costs, but can open up opportunities.
The current global geopolitical environment also adds uncertainty to Brazilian coffee exports, despite the low direct exposure of the national product to conflict zones in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
"On average, these markets together account for about 6% of the foreign exchange revenue generated by Brazilian coffee shipments, which indicates a limited direct impact on the trade balance, even in a scenario of total interruption of flows," assesses DATAGRO.
The effects of the conflicts, especially in the Middle East, should be limited to indirect channels – such as increased freight costs, insurance, transit time, and agricultural input costs – but they may, at the same time, open up commercial opportunities for Brazil.
“Among the main global exporters of Robusta, especially Vietnam and Indonesia, the logistics of supplying the European market are more susceptible to disruptions in the area surrounding the Suez Canal. In this context, the increased cost and length of routes from these origins can reduce their relative competitiveness, mainly benefiting domestic Robusta coffee,” explains the consultancy.
Despite the uncertainties, shipments are expected to rebound with the new harvest.
The arrival of the 2026/27 coffee harvest on the market is expected to bring some relief to the export sector. The Robusta coffee harvest begins in April, while the Arabica harvest picks up pace from May onwards. However, the effects on exports usually become more pronounced from June onwards, peaking in the second half of the year.
Cecafé's assessment is that, with greater product availability, the volume shipped should increase throughout the year, possibly exceeding the results of 2025.
Still, performance will depend on factors such as the evolution of global demand, price behavior, and producers' willingness to market the harvest. "It's quite likely that, with a larger harvest, we'll have better exports than in 2025. But it's difficult to predict with so many variables," says Matos.
Logistical bottlenecks and competition with other products
The recovery in exports could expose logistical infrastructure problems that Brazil has faced for decades.
According to the CEO of Cecafé, on average in 2025, 55% of ships experienced delays or schedule changes, and 1,824 containers stuffed with coffee – equivalent to 601,819 bags – were not exported each month, resulting in Brazil losing US$2.640 billion in foreign exchange revenue.
“The main bottleneck is port capacity, especially in Santos, which accounts for about 80% of coffee shipments,” explains Matos. “The structural limitations of Brazilian ports, including draft restrictions and maneuvering areas, hinder the country's adaptation to the increasing size of ships used in international trade,” he adds.
Another factor that worsens the logistics scenario is competition with other agricultural commodities exported in containers. Products such as meat, pulp, cotton, and rice compete for space in port terminals, especially during periods of large harvests.
With the prospect of robust agricultural production in 2026, the trend is for increased competition, which could raise costs and further hinder the distribution of coffee. "Agribusiness is growing, but infrastructure is not keeping pace. This creates a dispute over capacity and limits distribution," says the CEO of Cecafé.
Brazil enters 2026 with positive prospects for coffee production, supported by a potentially record harvest. However, supply retention by producers, loss of competitiveness in key markets, geopolitical tensions, and logistical bottlenecks create a challenging scenario for the export sector.
Although there is an expectation of improved shipments throughout the year, especially in the second half, the uncertain environment should continue to guide market decisions. "We know it should be a better year, but it's very difficult to project given so many variables," concluded Matos.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.