At 9:34 am (Brasilia time) this Tuesday (14), the May contract of WTI crude oil shows a significant decrease of 3.07% in New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), quoted at US$ 96.04/barrel. The June contract for the Brent It fell 1.61% in Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), traded at US$ 97.76/barrel. On the previous day (13), the energy commodity rose 2.6% in Nymex, at US$ 99.08/barrel, and 4.36% in ICEThe price of crude oil is at US$99.36/barrel. This morning, the market is reacting to signs that the United States and Iran may resume diplomatic discussions to end the conflict in the Middle East. The prospect of dialogue reduces some of the risk premium embedded in prices, given the possibility of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the drop, the market remains attentive to the scenario of restricted supply. According to… International Energy Agency (IEA)The attacks on energy infrastructure and logistical restrictions in the Middle East caused the largest disruption in history to oil supply, with an estimated loss of 10.1 million barrels per day in March. The relief comes even with the continued US military presence in the region. The US maintains maritime blockade operations around the Sea of Hormuz, while Iran continues to threaten retaliation against neighboring Gulf countries that support Western actions. In parallel, the IEA revised downwards its estimates for the global oil market, with demand projected to fall by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 and supply to decrease by 1.5 million bpd in 2026.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.