War hurts Brazilian exports to Gulf countries, but quarter remains positive, says Arab Chamber of Commerce.

The conflict in the Middle East, which began in late February, is already impacting Brazilian exports to the Arab Gulf countries, important markets for agricultural products and minerals. Sales to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—which form the economic bloc known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—fell 31.47% in March compared to the same period last year, to US$537.11 million, according to data from the Market Intelligence of the Arab-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce. Despite the decline in the month, the performance in the quarter is still positive. From January to March, exports to the GCC grew 8.14%, totaling US$2.41 billion. Considering all 22 countries monitored by the entity, including the Arab nations of the Levant and the African nations, the increase was 3.90%, to US$5.13 billion. According to the Arab Chamber of Commerce, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which restricted access to strategic Gulf ports, interrupted an upward trend in Brazilian sales. The impact has not yet compromised the overall result, but it could intensify throughout the year, depending on the evolution of the conflict. “Sales to the GCC, which concentrates the largest Arab markets and accounts for 47% of exports to the bloc of countries, were increasing in January and February compared to 2025, the second-best year in the historical series,” says the Secretary-General of the Arab-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, Mohamad Mourad. “The decline in March stems from the conflict and, for now, does not affect the accumulated total, but it could still have an impact.” In agribusiness, which accounts for about 75% of sales, exports to the GCC fell 25.38% in March, but accumulated a 6.8% increase in the quarter, reaching US$1.44 billion, thanks to gains in important products, offset by losses in other items. Chicken, the main item on the agricultural export agenda, fell 13.80% in the month to US$185.50 million, but only 2.32% year-to-date, to US$619.12 million. Sugar, the second main product, fell 43.37% in March to US$54.07 million, but rose 26.41% year-to-date to US$363.11 million. Beef stood out, with a 23.87% increase in the most intense month of the conflict, to US$47.75 million, in addition to a 65.29% increase in the quarter, to US$194.56 million. Corn shipments to the GCC practically ceased in March, with a 99.96% drop to US$0.03 million, although the year-to-date decline is still limited to 5.8%, totaling US$61.22 million. Coffee exports saw a 34.24% increase in March, reaching US$9.97 million, and a 64.3% increase in the quarter, reaching US$49.58 million. Another point of concern is the decline in Brazilian fertilizer imports from the GCC (Global Coal and Steel Community), which fell by 51.35% in the first quarter. This region accounts for approximately 10% of the fertilizer purchased by Brazilian agribusiness abroad. “This is a point of concern for both our agricultural sector and the Arab countries, which depend on Brazil's ability to supply surplus food,” Mourad points out. “It is necessary to find ways to minimize these impacts,” he concludes. 

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.