THE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised to 61% the probability of the phenomenon forming El Niño between May and July according to VIP Report disclosed by DATAGROThe index, released last Thursday (9), represents an advance compared to the previous estimate of 45%, reinforcing the trend of anticipating the phenomenon. According to the DATAGROThe increase is associated with the advance of positive subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the occurrence of westerly winds, key factors in the development of El Niño. NOAA The agency projects that the phenomenon should persist at least until the quarter between November 2026 and January 2027. It also points to a 25% probability of El Niño reaching very strong intensity by the end of 2026, with anomalies exceeding 2.0°C in sea surface temperature. However, this scenario depends on the continuation of favorable atmospheric conditions, especially westerly winds. According to… DATAGROSimilar patterns have already been observed in significant episodes, such as 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2023/24, associated with strong El Niño or "Super El Niño" events. In Brazil, these periods were characterized by more frequent heat waves and irregular rainfall, mainly in the Center-South region. The consultancy highlights that, if the current scenario is confirmed, the impacts could be even more significant, with substantial effects on the… 2027 crop developmentFor more details, visit the VIP Report in analysis session of DATAGRO Portal.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.