USDA projects Argentina’s soybean crop at 49 million tons in 2026/27.

Argentina's soybean production is expected to reach 49 million tons in the 2026/27 crop year, according to a report by the attaché. from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Buenos Aires. The advance is supported by the increase in planted area, but limited by the expectation of a return of productivity to levels closer to the historical average, after the good performance of the current cycle. The cultivated area should grow to 17.4 million hectares, above the 16.5 million estimated for 2025/26. However, the USDA The report highlights that fertilizer prices will be a determining factor in the final area allocation, amidst the impacts of the war in the Middle East. Since soybeans require less fertilizer than corn, high costs could encourage greater migration to the oilseed. Furthermore, a potential reduction in export taxes—currently at 24% for the grain and 22.5% for derivatives—could further expand planting. Soybean crushing and imports are expected to fall to 42 million tons, compared to 43 million in 2025/26, reflecting lower imported supply and tighter margins. Argentine imports are projected at 6.5 million tons, below the 7 million estimated for the current cycle, due to expectations of lower production in Paraguay, the main external supplier. Soybean exports are expected to remain at 5.5 million tons, with China maintaining its dominant position, absorbing more than 90% of shipments. In the industrial sector, soybean oil production is expected to reach 8.38 million tons, practically stable compared to the previous cycle (8.6 million). Exports of the product should remain at 6.3 million tons, supported by strong global demand for vegetable oils. India should continue as the main destination, accounting for more than 60% of Argentine soybean oil exports.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.