Exports to the US hit a historic low in the first quarter, says Amcham.

Brazilian exports to the United States totaled US$7.8 billion in the first quarter, a decrease of 18.7% compared to the same period last year. As a result, the United States now accounts for 9.5% of Brazilian exports—the lowest level in the historical series that began in 1997, according to monitoring by Amcham. “The historically low share of the United States in Brazilian exports in this first quarter reinforces the importance of advancing bilateral dialogue. There is room to reverse this trend, as indicated by the slowdown in the decline of exports in March, but this will depend on agreements that avoid new restrictions on trade between the two countries,” says Abrão Neto, president of Amcham Brazil. :: Performance contrasts with other markets The result in the quarter contrasts with the growth of Brazilian exports to the world (+3.5%) and to relevant partners such as China and the European Union. Bilateral trade totaled US$17 billion, a decrease of 14.8%, reflecting the contraction in both exports and imports. Despite the decline, the US remains Brazil's second-largest trading partner. :: Widespread drop in exports The contraction was widespread across sectors, with the following impacts: Manufacturing: -14.2% Extractive industry: -39.1% Agriculture: -34.4% Industrial exports totaled US$6.6 billion, pressured mainly by tariffs on higher value-added products. :: March shows signs of slowdown Despite the negative performance in the quarter, March data indicate a slowdown in the decline. Exports fell 9.1% in the month (vs. -18.7% in the quarter), with 7 of the 10 main exported products registering growth, notably crude oil (+321%), aircraft (+85.8%) and electrical machinery (+73.4%). In addition, exports of products without surcharges grew 15.1% in the month. The improvement is associated, albeit partially, with the reduction in tariffs following the US Supreme Court's decision at the end of February. :: Tariffs remain a focus of attention. Surcharges continue to be a determining factor in export performance, especially for industrial goods. Currently, about 45% of Brazilian exports enter the American market without surcharges, while the remainder still faces additional tariffs. A survey by Amcham indicates that 86% of companies remain apprehensive about the risk of new trade restrictions, indicating a considerable level of uncertainty in bilateral business. :: Imports decline, concentrated in a few items. Brazilian imports from the US totaled US$ 9.2 billion in the quarter, a decrease of 11.1%, concentrated mainly in machinery and oil. Excluding these items, the flow of imports remains resilient. :: Outlook: uncertainty in the short term and room for recovery. The scenario for the coming months remains uncertain, given the possibility of new tariff measures in the US, as well as the unpredictability of the international situation. On the other hand, the moderation in the decline in sales observed in March, combined with the increased share of products without surcharges in the Brazilian export portfolio and consistent American demand, indicates the possibility of a gradual recovery throughout 2026. 

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.