The CEAGESP price index rose +5.16% compared to a drop of -2.97% in the previous month. In the same period last year, the index had shown an increase of +3.95%, and with this result, it ended the period with an accumulated increase of +0.43% for the year and -3.80% over 12 months. In this context, the highlight was the Fish sector, which for the second consecutive month showed a negative price variation. The end of the closed season for several species in different regions of the country favored an increase in the monthly supply volume of products, directly impacting the sector's results in February and March. :: Sector Breakdown The FRUIT sector rose +3.07% compared to a drop of -3.05% in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown an increase of +2.50%, and with this result, it ended the month with an accumulated decrease of -8.49% for the year and -3.84% over 12 months. Of the 49 items listed in this basket of products, 51% showed a price increase. The main increases occurred in the prices of CRIMSON GRAPES (+38.06%), SWEET PASSION FRUIT (+30.60%), IMPORTED KIWI (+28.14%), YELLOW MELON (+22.86%) and NIAGARA GRAPES (+19.54%). The main decreases occurred in the prices of FUJI APPLES (-23.31%), SICILIAN LEMONS (-22.77%), GEADA AVOCADO (-18.28%), GALA APPLES (-14.39%) and IMPORTED DANJOU PEARS (-13.17%). The production scenario in March was marked by a complex climatic transition. According to the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Climatempo, the La Niña phenomenon, which acted with low intensity since the end of 2025, has entered a dissipation process, leading the Equatorial Pacific to a state of thermal neutrality. However, the observation of a coastal El Niño on the coasts of Peru and Ecuador is already causing effects on the warming of central-southern Brazil. This climatic transition is challenging for fruit farming, as it alters rainfall patterns and increases the temperature range in the main producing regions. In addition, Holy Week generated a positive demand shock for the sector. Historically, this period registers one of the highest consumption peaks of the year, demanding a larger volume of fruit. Not even the increase in the monthly supply of Crimson grapes, a variety with high added value, was able to contain prices. At the São Paulo Terminal Market (ETSP), the item ended the period quoted at R$ 13.60/kg, with a price variation of +28.5% in the last 12 months. On the other hand, the lower availability of Niagara grapes at the ETSP (São Paulo Wholesale Market) forced prices up (this variety forms the basis of table grape consumption). This reduction in supply volume is mainly attributed to seasonality, as the product has its peak harvest in the months of November to January. Climatic conditions in the producing regions played an important role, as this variety is extremely susceptible to excess moisture. The rains that occurred in March and in previous periods favored the occurrence of fungal diseases and the "cracking" of the berries, hindering the marketing of fresh produce. The price increase for yellow melon reflects the end of the production calendar in the main producing regions. According to the Seasonality Map (2023-2025) released by CEAGESP (São Paulo Wholesale Market), the period from mid-September to December concentrates the largest volume of this product entering the ETSP, with March already representing a period of low supply due to the beginning of the off-season. The VEGETABLE sector rose +22.87% compared to a drop of -1.75% in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown an increase of +16.36%, and with this result, it ended the month with an accumulated increase of +51.13% for the year and +5.35% over 12 months. Of the 32 items quoted in this basket of products, 66% showed a price increase. The main increases occurred in the prices of GREEN BEANS (+68.19%), PIZZA'DORO TOMATOES (+63.23%), CARROTS (+58.94%), COMMON EGGPLANT (+51.77%) and CARMEM TOMATOES (+47.52%). The main price drops occurred for chayote (-54.73%), yam (-8.71%), cassava (-7.26%), eggplant (-6.10%), and gherkin (-5.56%). The sector ended the period with a significant increase in value, reversing the deflationary trend observed in the previous month. The main driver of this increase was the unstable weather in the producing regions, with persistent heavy rainfall compromising the physical integrity of sensitive products. String beans and Pizza'doro tomatoes led the price increases in the sector due to a combination of flower abortion and disease incidence, which reduced the monthly supply volume. In the case of carrots, the rains reduced the supply of higher-quality roots, and the excess water caused deformities and so-called "melt," raising the price level. At ETSP, the item closed the period quoted at R$ 4.19/kg, with a price variation of +32.9% in the last 12 months. The Carmem tomato, despite a marginal increase in the monthly supply volume, registered a price increase driven by strong demand for higher quality products, which were scarce during the period. The VEGETABLES sector rose +4.29% compared to an increase of +11.09% in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown an increase of +2.03% and, with the result obtained, ended the month with an accumulated increase of +37.38% for the year and -6.25% in 12 months. Of the 39 items quoted in this basket of products, 74% showed a price increase. The main price increases were seen in BEETROOT WITH LEAVES (+52.97%), PARSLEY (+48.59%), SMOOTH/GREEN CABBAGE (+30.86%), CAULIFLOWER (+29.45%), and KALE (+26.48%). The main price decreases were seen in CILANTRO (-38.37%), RADISH (-3.55%), NINJA BROCCOLI (-3.29%), AMERICAN LETTUCE (-1.71%), and HYDROPONIC SMOOTH LETTUCE (-1.53%). The Vegetable sector ended the period signaling a slowdown in the rate of price increases. However, the scenario remains under strong pressure, given that the first quarter of the year ended with an accumulated increase of +37.38%. The monthly dynamics were influenced by the climatic instability characteristic of the transition between summer and autumn. The heat and rain that hit the main producing regions of São Paulo's green belt harmed crop development in the fields and led to greater product disposal at the ETSP (São Paulo Wholesale Market). These climatic variations are crucial for vegetable production and directly impact the supply and quality of products. A good example of this is cauliflower. The excessive heat prevented the head of the vegetable from closing, resulting in lower quality products at higher prices, as it is a vegetable sensitive to handling and requires specific soil and climate conditions for its cultivation. The significant reduction in the monthly supply volume accurately reflects this entire scenario. At the ETSP, the item closed the period quoted at R$ 6.30/head, with stability in the price variation of +0.3% in the last 12 months. The MISCELLANEOUS sector rose +12.77% compared to an increase of +5.98% in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown an increase of +2.93%, and with the result obtained, it ended the month with an accumulated increase of +14.48% for the year and -12.65% over 12 months. Of the 11 items quoted in this basket of products, 82% showed a price increase. The main increases occurred in the prices of NATIONAL ONION (+42.69%), ASTERIX POTATO (+29.00%), RED EGGS (+12.17%), WASHED POTATO (+11.70%) and WHITE EGGS (+10.96%). The main decreases occurred in the prices of DRIED COCONUT (-2.43%) and QUAIL EGGS (-1.17%). The national onion drove the price increases in the sector due to the weather and the transition between harvests. The rains that occurred in previous periods hampered the curing (drying) and storage processes of the stocks, resulting in a lower availability of higher-quality bulbs in the CEAGESP wholesale market. Furthermore, product prices reflected the end of the production cycle in important production regions in the south of the country. The transition to production areas in the Southeast region was also impacted by the rains, reducing the monthly supply volume during the period. Thus, the product ended the period at an average price of R$ 2.69/kg, with a price variation of +21.5% in the last 12 months. Among the tubers, potatoes maintained their upward trend. The average prices of Asterix potatoes and washed potatoes at ETSP were influenced by the instability in the harvest in the main producing regions, especially in São Paulo. Excess soil moisture hampered the work of machinery and compromised the visual aspect, increasing the premium on higher-quality lots. Due to the proximity of Holy Week, there was a concomitance with the normal consumption pressure of this period. In addition, red and white eggs saw price increases due to the seasonality of Lent, and even the increase in the monthly supply volume was not enough to contain the price rise. At the CEAGESP wholesale market, the red variety ended the period at an average price of R$ 8.05/dozen, while the white variety registered R$ 7.15/dozen. The FISH sector fell -0.97% compared to a drop of -8.60% in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown an increase of +1.90%, and with the result obtained, it ended the month with an accumulated increase of +1.50% for the year and -0.29% over 12 months. Of the 30 items quoted in this basket of products, 57% showed a price decrease. The main price drops occurred for CURIMBA (-32.99%), ROBALO (-22.18%), CAVALINHA (-20.67%), PEROÁ BRANCO (-16.85%), and CAMARÃO CATIVEIRO (-8.71%). The main price increases occurred for PESCADA AMARELA (+19.02%), PESCADA BRANCA (+14.21%), SARDINHA LAGES (+5.63%), TILÁPIA (+4.04%), and BONITO (+2.72%). Historically, the month of March is marked by inflationary pressures in the fish sector due to the religious tradition of Lent. However, the result obtained this year indicates that the sector managed to maintain a good supply of products capable of "neutralizing" the demand pressure typical of this time of year. With the lifting of fishing restrictions on various native species in different regions of the country, the volume of fish accumulated during this period, resulting in large catches in the first days of March. The increase in the monthly supply of curimba at the São Paulo Fish Market (EPSP) reflects this scenario. This item is valued in the market due to its high caloric density, becoming one of the main alternatives for consumers seeking to replace red meat during Lent. The product ended the period at an average price of R$ 15.45/kg, with a price variation of +32.5% in the last 12 months. The surface water temperature, kept high by the residual summer heat and the influence (albeit small) of the coastal El Niño, kept schools of sea bass very close to the coast, facilitating fishing along the coast and the commercialization of the product at the EPSP. In March, the average price of the product was R$ 44.71/kg, with a price variation of -8.3% in the last 12 months. Mackerel is a small fish, frequently associated with large-scale catches. The drop in the monthly average price reflects the increase in the monthly supply volume resulting from catches that occurred mainly on the southern and southeastern coasts. In the CEAGESP wholesale market, the item ended the period at an average price of R$ 4.35/kg with a price variation of +18.1% in the last 12 months.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.