CNseg estimates a drop of almost 4% in revenue from rural insurance in 2026.

The National Confederation of Insurance Companies (CNseg) has revised its projection for the performance of rural insurance in 2026 downwards. The previous expectation pointed to nominal growth of 2.3%, but the new estimate indicates a drop of 3.9%, reflecting a scenario of market contraction after a 2025 already marked by decline. According to the president of CNseg, Dyogo Oliveira, the revision stems mainly from the lack of sufficient resources in the federal budget allocated to the Rural Insurance Premium Subsidy Program (PSR), a mechanism that subsidizes part of the policy cost for the producer. Without this support, insurance contracting tends to decrease. “The main factor is that we still haven't had, in this year's budget, the necessary resources to resume the growth trajectory of rural insurance,” stated Oliveira. “This ends up hindering the market and led to the revision of the projection.” Data presented by the entity indicates that revenue from the rural segment reached R$ 12.9 billion in 2025, a decrease of 8.8% compared to 2024. In January of this year, the decrease was 12.2%, totaling R$ 1.1 billion. The reduction in coverage also worries the sector. According to CNseg, the proportion of insured agricultural area in the country has fallen significantly in recent years. Brazil once had approximately 13.7 million hectares of planted area protected by rural insurance, but the index fell to just over 3 million in 2025, representing 3.3% of the total planted area in Brazil, reflecting the reduction in federal subsidies. For Oliveira, the decrease in coverage creates a negative cycle. With fewer producers taking out policies, the average risk of the portfolio increases, putting pressure on insurance prices and discouraging new contracts and the entry of insurers into the market. “Insurance works by diluting risk. When fewer producers participate, the average cost rises and the market loses competitiveness,” he explained. The drop in coverage occurs at a time of increased climate risks for agribusiness. According to a survey cited by CNseg, Brazil has recorded average losses of around R$ 60 billion per year in climate events in recent years, with the agricultural sector being one of the most impacted. The entity advocates for the creation of structural mechanisms to strengthen rural insurance in the country. Among the proposals presented are the guarantee of a stable budget for the PSR (Rural Insurance Program) and the creation of a rural insurance stabilization fund, which would allow for compensation for years of high claims and reduce the volatility of premiums. A bill reported by Congressman Pedro Lupion and authored by Senator Tereza Cristina, which seeks to prevent the withholding of program funds and structure the stabilization fund, is also under discussion in Congress. According to Oliveira, strengthening rural insurance is considered strategic given the change in the financing model of Brazilian agribusiness, which is increasingly based on private capital. “With more private financing in the field, the need for mechanisms that provide security to the investor grows. Insurance is a fundamental piece to guarantee stability and confidence in the system,” he stated. For the insurance sector, without a consistent expansion of coverage and public support for rural insurance, Brazilian agribusiness may become more exposed to climatic and financial risks precisely at a time of greater dependence on market capital. 

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.