Analysis DATAGRO
NY May 2026 raw sugar fell 29 points last Thursday, settling at US$ 15.00 c/lb and posting a weekly loss of 87 points, reflecting positive expectations for crops in CS Brazil and Thailand.
NY #11: after testing the US$ 16.00 c/lb level in the previous week, prices gradually decoupled from oil market fluctuations, responding more to their own fundamentals.
CFTC: funds and small specs reduced the net short position in the NY raw sugar market, from 103,091 lots on March 24th to 80,672 lots on March 31st.
CS Brazil: ethanol market for producers remains characterized by low liquidity in the spot market, reflecting a more defensive stance from distributors.
CS Brazil: in São Paulo, hydrous ethanol for producers reached R$ 2.9233/liter last Thursday, down 1.1% WoW, while anhydrous ethanol was traded at R$ 3.3442/liter, down 0.4% WoW, both ex-mill and net of taxes.
CS Brazil: in Paulínia (SP), the CIF price for hydrous ethanol reached R$ 2.9844/liter (net of taxes), down 1.5% WoW, according to DATAGRO PRA.
CS Brazil: ethanol stocks held by mills in the region totaled 2.434 billion liters as of March 16th (-23.9% YoY), the lowest level for the period since the 20/21 crop.
CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol stocks reached 1.353 billion liters as of March 16th (-27.4% YoY), enough to supply the domestic market for around 27 days, compared to 4 days a year earlier.
CS Brazil: anhydrous ethanol stocks totaled 1.082 billion liters as of March 16th (-19.0% YoY), enough to cover approximately 29 days of consumption, versus 11 days a year ago.
U.S. ethanol production fell 3.7% in the week ending March 27th, reaching 1.075 mbpd (+1.1% YoY). Stocks also declined WoW (-4.3%) to 25.991 million barrels (-2.3% YoY).
U.S. gasoline demand declined 2.7% WoW, reaching 8.686 mbpd (+2.2% YoY).
Indonesia: sugar imports reached 503 k mt in February (+50.6% YoY), totaling 531 k mt year-to-date (-0.4% YoY).
Mexico: as of March 28th, cane crushing reached 32.66 mmt in the 25/26 crop (-1.3% YoY), while sugar production totaled 3.48 mmt (+2.8% YoY).
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO World Sugar & Ethanol Weekly Review.
● DATAGRO Fuel Prices Report.