Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market declined for the fourth consecutive session, with May 2026 dropping 23 points to US$ 15.29 c/lb. The move was pressured by stronger-than-expected figures for Thailand’s 25/26 crop and the possibility of an end to the Middle East conflict, easing tensions and reducing the risk premium.
Thailand: with 47 mills in operation, compared to just 8 a year ago, cane crushing totaled 101.83 mmt through March 29th (+10.8% YoY), the highest level for the period since 18/19.
Thailand: industrial yields also improved, reaching 112.50 kg sugar/mt (+3.1% YoY).
Thailand: sugar production has already reached 11.46 mmt, tel quel, through March 29th (+14.2% YoY), also the highest level for the period since 18/19.
Thailand: for 26/27, initial monsoon projections point to rainfall within normal levels across cane fields, despite increased probabilities of an El Niño event in 2H 2026.
CS Brazil: cumulative rainfall in the region averaged 188.3 mm in March, 12.9% above the historical average.
CS Brazil: since January, average rainfall has reached 631.8 mm, making it one of the wettest first quarters in recent years, second only to 2023 (744.5 mm).
CS Brazil: rainfall in 1H April is expected to range between 40 and 70 mm, slightly above the historical average, while in 2H April precipitation is forecast to be close to normal.
Brazil: sugar shipment nomination pace increased from 26 to 33 vessels, scheduled to load 1.174 mmt (-0.3% YoY). China leads destinations with 206 k mt (17.6%), followed by Canada (13.8%) and Iraq (12.1%), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
Brazil: waiting time for berthing at CLI 16/17 terminals, Santos Port, increased from 13 to 22 days, compared to 13 days in the same period last year.
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO Grains Line-up.