Arab countries could lose up to US$194 billion due to the war in Iran, says the UN.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) reported on Tuesday (31) that the military escalation threatens the human and economic development gains achieved throughout Iran. According to "UN News," regional economies could suffer combined contractions of between 3.7% and 6.0% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The total equates to losses ranging from US$120 billion to US$194 billion, surpassing the growth recorded in 2025. Military escalation intensifies pressure. The report, which makes preliminary simulations of the crisis's impact, indicates that the shocks caused by the military escalation exacerbate the pressure on livelihoods, essential services, and human development prospects. At the same time, communities throughout Iran continue to demonstrate resilience in dealing with these constantly evolving challenges. The labor market is expected to face considerable pressure. Unemployment is projected to increase by about four percentage points, resulting in the loss of approximately 3.6 million jobs. The situation could push another 4 million people below the poverty line, highlights the publication “Military Escalation in the Middle East: Economic and Social Repercussions for the Arab Region”. Strategic reassessment of fiscal policies: The UNDP points out that structural vulnerabilities in Arab economies are becoming highly susceptible to short-term shocks and external unrest. The report concludes that a strategic reassessment of fiscal, sectoral, and social policies is necessary, describing the current context as “a critical moment in the region’s development trajectory”. To mitigate exposure to future shocks, the study also recommends strengthening regional economic integration, diversification to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons, and expanding productive capacity. The UNDP also suggests increasing the resilience of supply chains and expanding trade partnerships. :: Food Insecurity Situation Following the conflict, the Security Council scheduled a meeting for Tuesday at UN headquarters in New York to discuss the deadly attacks against peacekeeping forces deployed for the UN mission in Lebanon. Since the start of the fighting a month ago, more than 200,000 Lebanese have crossed the border into Syria. The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, indicates that most describe intense Israeli bombing in the capital, Beirut, and other parts of the country. However, the World Food Programme (WFP) announced that 70,000 tons of humanitarian aid destined for vulnerable people in war-affected areas in various Gulf countries are being held up. The supplies are still aboard ships unable to move in the region. The WFP revealed that it was already delivering aid to Afghanistan, via Iran, to feed approximately 17 million people facing food insecurity. The agency will now have to transport the aid by land, departing from Dubai, crossing Saudi Arabia, and then heading towards Afghanistan. Regarding military operations, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) reported that the most recent attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz set fire to a fully loaded fuel tanker northwest of Dubai. This is the 19th confirmed incident involving vessels in this Gulf waterway, which has served as a vital channel for about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas. The crew has been located and is safe, and there have been no reports of pollution. The agency remains concerned about the safety of the approximately 20,000 sailors trapped aboard up to 2,000 vessels. The situation is unprecedented since World War II.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.