Morning Call Mar 31st, 2026

NY May 2026 raw sugar fell 21 points in the last session, settling at US$ 15.55 c/lb, broadly stable WoW (+3 points), reflecting profit-taking after the recent upward trend.
 

CS Brazil: the 26/27 crop is about to begin, with expectations, possibly unanimous among market participants, of a larger volume of cane available for crushing.
 

CS Brazil: between October 1st, 2025 and March 2nd, 2026, cumulative rainfall reached 1,092 mm, 7.2% above the historical average for the period.
 

CS Brazil: cane fields have shown a strong response, especially since January, with faster biomass gains compared to the same period last year.
 

CS Brazil: a partial recovery in yield indicators is expected in the first third of the 26/27 crop, converging to the same levels recorded in 25/26 from August onwards.
 

CS Brazil: given the probability of an El Niño event in 2H 2026, there is a risk that cane fields may not recover to the same TRS levels recorded two years ago.
 

CS Brazil: DATAGRO has revised its estimates for the 26/27 crop in the region. More details are available on our portal: https://portal.datagro.com/en/sugar-etanol.
 

El Niño: NOAA raised the probability of the phenomenon forming in the June–August period from 41% to 61%, exceeding 70% in 2H 2026, indicating an early onset and moderate intensity through year-end.
 

Argentina: ethanol production reached 99 million liters in February (+10.8% YoY), with 70 million liters produced from corn (+15.2%) and 29 million liters from cane (+1.7%).
 

Argentina: ethanol output totaled 195 million liters year-to-date since January (+3.3% YoY), of which 132.8 million liters came from corn (+4.7%) and 62.7 million liters from cane (+0.6%).
 

Brazil: last week, hydrous ethanol prices at the pump were competitive against gasoline in Mato Grosso (68.14%), Mato Grosso do Sul (68.20%), Paraná (69.60%), and São Paulo (67.86%), representing 37.6% of Otto-cycle fuel demand in 2026, down from 43.1% a year ago.
 

Brazil: since the start of the Middle East conflict, regular gasoline prices at the pump have increased 8.0%, while hydrous ethanol prices rose 1.9%. The average ethanol-to-gasoline ratio in the country declined to 69.6%.