Sindiadubos-PR estimates a drop of up to 15% in the national fertilizer market by 2026.

If the effects of the war between the United States and Iran on the global fertilizer market weren't enough, two more domestic factors are further aggravating the scenario for Brazilian agribusiness: the taxation of PIS/COFINS on fertilizers starting April 1st, due to the Tax Reform Law; and Provisional Measure (MP) 1343/2026, regarding minimum freight rates. This warning comes from the Union of Fertilizer and Agricultural Corrective Industries of Paraná (Sindiadubos-PR), which advocates for urgent interventions by the Federal Government to prevent further increases in agricultural inputs and, consequently, in food prices. After a record 49 million tons of fertilizers delivered in Brazil in 2025, the expectation for this year is a decline. “The Brazilian fertilizer market could shrink by 10% to 15% in 2026 due to high costs and logistical difficulties at ports resulting from the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Furthermore, the start of the PIS/COFINS tax, which was previously exempt and will represent a 2% increase, and the new freight rates are making the situation more difficult for farmers, raising production costs,” highlights the president of Sindiadubos-PR, Aluísio Schwartz. According to him, the expectation is that global geopolitical conflicts and national tax and fiscal issues will reduce production and increase food prices. “Fertilizer imports are showing a decline in the first four months of the year; while companies fear the current high cost, farmers prefer to postpone purchases, hoping for some improvement in the future,” he observes. According to Aluísio, there should be a reduction in fertilizer use worldwide due to the high cost. In Brazil, due to recent excellent harvests, there has been a depletion of fertilizer reserves in the soil, causing the reduction in fertilization to be replaced by a reduction in planted area and, consequently, a decrease in food production, which will inevitably cause the consumer to pay the price through increased prices, he assesses. “The decrease in production, if it occurs, should lead to a rise in the prices of soybeans, corn, chicken, beef, sugar, coffee… worldwide. The final equation is overpricing,” he points out. :: Global scenario The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in Iran could result in the loss of 5 million tons in the production of phosphate fertilizers. This estimate is for a one-month interruption, since the location is responsible for the export of about 40% of all the world's sulfur—an essential input for the production of soluble phosphates. Added to this is the fact that the price of sulfur increased significantly before the war due to strong competition in the market for battery production. In addition to the factors already mentioned, Brazil is also being impacted by a sharp drop in imports of Chinese phosphates due to export bans imposed by that government. "A drop in fertilizer prices is not expected in the short term, even if the war ends," notes the president of Sindiadubos-PR. In his assessment, although Brazil has time to import fertilizers for the soybean crop that begins in September, the large volumes of imports held up could result in long queues at ports, potentially causing delays in planting. "Production plants worldwide are being affected by the conflicts between Ukraine and Russia and Israel and Iran, and the resumption of production takes time, indicating a major supply difficulty for various products," comments Aluísio. The scarcity in gas supply has led India, a major urea producer, to reduce its urea production. In turn, Russia has banned the export of ammonium nitrate, of which Brazil imports about 2 million tons annually. With the increase in oil prices, which has raised international freight costs, potassium, which had been showing price stability, has also registered increases. "There is concern about a possible shortage, which has never occurred before, but the expectation is that the market will adjust, raising prices, and farmers will reduce the use of fertilizers," considers the president of Sindiadubos-PR. :: Federal Agenda While the end of the wars is considered fundamental to normalizing the supply and flow of fertilizers in the global market, industry associations are mobilized in negotiations with the Federal Government to mitigate the risks of further losses to Brazilian agribusiness. The Paraná Fertilizer Industry Union (Sindiadubos-PR), the National Association for the Diffusion of Fertilizers (ANDA), and the Brazilian Fertilizer Mixers Association (AMA) — which operates in Brasília leading the Instituto Pensar Agropecuário (IPA), in partnership with the Agricultural Parliamentary Front (FPA) — are working together to persuade the federal government to postpone the collection of PIS/COFINS taxes, review the criteria of the minimum freight rate table, and negotiate with the Chinese government the urgent reopening of phosphate exports to Brazil, one of the largest exporters of soybeans to China. “Despite criticism regarding the importation of certain phosphates from China, which totaled more than 2 million tons last year, the response in the field was a record harvest, dispelling any doubts regarding these fertilizers,” emphasizes Aluísio. If the Chinese bans continue this year, he projects that farmers will pay much higher prices without Chinese phosphates. 

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.