Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market moved higher again on Thursday, tracking the rally in oil and energy markets. May 2026 rose 32 points to US$ 15.87 c/lb, accumulating gains of 157 points since the start of the Persian Gulf conflict.
Middle East: Iran’s rejection of the U.S. proposal and rumors of tariffs in the Strait of Hormuz reinforced expectations of a more prolonged conflict, supporting energy prices.
Brazil: gasoline prices at Petrobras refineries are about 36% below import parity, increasing pressure for a near-term price adjustment.
CS Brazil: according to the DATAGRO line-up, sugar shipments remain firm early this year, with exports expected to reach 5.38 mmt in 1Q 2026 (+18.1% YoY).
CS Brazil: DATAGRO estimates indicate that 25/26 ending sugar stocks should reach 1.8 mmt by March 31st (-7.0% YoY). This tightness is expected to persist in the short term, as mills are likely to prioritize ethanol production at the start of the 26/27 season.
Brazil: hydrous ethanol prices for producers in São Paulo were traded at R$ 2.9569/liter, down 1.2% WoW, ex-mill, net of taxes, according to DATAGRO PRA.
Brazil: on an equivalent basis, hydrous ethanol was traded at US$ 17.42 c/lb FOB Santos (RP/SP basis), just 49 points above VHP sugar export parity, settled at US$ 16.93 c/lb FOB Santos, according to DATAGRO PRA.
Brazil: VHP sugar for prompt shipment in Santos is trading at a premium of 25 to 55 points, while April shipments are traded at premiums ranging from 20 to 50 points.
Brazil: Hodaka Galaxy vessel has been nominated to export 29 million liters of ethanol from Santos to South Korea by March 31st, according to the DATAGRO line-up.
Brazil exported 47 million liters of ethanol in March (-68.7% YoY), totaling 205 million liters year-to-date (-37.6% YoY), according to the DATAGRO line-up.
India: with 183 out of 210 mills already closed, cane crushing in Maharashtra reached 104.3 mmt (+22.7% YoY) as of March 24th, while sugar production totaled 9.9 mmt (+23.0% YoY).
Russia: sugar production reached 78 k mt in February (-23.7% YoY), totaling 6.153 mmt in the 25/26 season, broadly stable (+0.3%) YoY.
Russia: according to Soyuzrossakhar, 25/26 sugar production is expected at 6.35 mmt, slightly below the 6.4 mmt recorded in 24/25.
Agenda para hoje
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