Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market fell by 33 points on the May 2026 contract, closing at US$ 15.55 c/lb. The move was pressured by lower oil prices, amid expectations of a diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran, alongside an unexpected build in US oil stocks.
CS Brazil: the ethanol market remains in the transition to the 26/27 crop with historically low stocks, supporting prices amid tight supply at mills.
CS Brazil: rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm has delayed the start of crushing in some units, postponing the arrival of new supply and keeping upward pressure in the short term.
CS Brazil: even with the gradual resumption of operations at ethanol plants, prices remain relatively stable, with low short-term volatility, while still posting gains on a YoY basis.
CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol prices for producers in SP reached R$ 2.9679/liter on Wednesday (-0.8% WoW), while anhydrous ethanol prices rose 1.7% over the same period to R$ 3.3013/liter, both ex-mill and net of taxes, according to DATAGRO PRA.
CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol CIF price in Paulínia (SP) reached R$ 3.0641/liter (-1.2% WoW), net of taxes, according to DATAGRO PRA.
Brazil: 1.065 mmt of sugar were exported in the first three weeks of March, with a daily average of 71 k mt (+26.5% YoY).
Brazil: the pace of sugar shipment nominations declined from 36 to 26 vessels scheduled to load 967 k mt (-21.8% YoY). Canada leads as destination with 162 k mt (16.8%), followed by Iraq (13.6%) and Bangladesh (11.9%), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
Brazil: at the Port of Santos, waiting time to berth at CLI 16/17 fell from 14 to 13 days, still above the 12 days seen a year ago.
US: the government has suspended federal emission reduction restrictions on summer gasoline. Retailers may continue to blend E15 during the driving season. Over the past month, gasoline prices have skyrocketed by 51.5% (US$3.1480/gal), while ethanol prices in Iowa rose by only 8.1% (US$1.60/gal).
US: ethanol production rose 2.1% last week to 1.116 mbpd (+6.0% YoY), while ethanol stocks increased 2.9% to 27.170 million barrels (-0.7% YoY).
US: gasoline demand rose 2.2% WoW to 8.748 mbpd, up 3.3% YoY.
India: mills contracted around 100 k mt of sugar for export in just one week, bringing the cumulative volume for the season to 550 k mt, driven by the depreciation of the rupee and higher international prices.
India: offers are around US$ 450/t FOB, with shipments scheduled for April and May, mainly destined for Asia and Africa.
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO Grains Line-up.