Morning Call Mar 25th, 2026

NY raw sugar market moved higher again on Tuesday, with May 2026 rising 36 points to US$ 15.88 c/lb, recovering the previous session’s losses, supported by higher oil and energy commodity prices.
 

Energy market: escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Iran denying negotiations with the U.S. and maintaining restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, increased the geopolitical risk premium and reinforced support to the sugar curve.
 

Thailand: the 25/26 season shows a clear recovery, with average crushing close to 1.0 mmt/day in 1H March, well above the 711 k mt/day recorded in the previous cycle.
 

Thailand: cumulative cane crushing reached 92.34 mmt as of March 15th (+3.0% YoY), with 56 mills in operation, compared to 42 units in the same period last season.
 

Thailand: industrial yields recovered to 111.21 kg sugar/tc (+2.6% YoY) as of March 15th, lifting sugar production to 10.27 mmt (+5.6% YoY) over the same period.
 

Thailand: despite the initial delay, mills may extend crushing through the end of April to mitigate losses, contingent on favorable weather conditions.
 

Thailand: sugar exports totaled 462 k mt in February (-39.1% YoY), reaching 1.212 mmt since the start of the 25/26 season (-21.7% YoY).
 

Indonesia remains the main buyer of Thai sugar in the 25/26 season, with 194 k mt (16.0% of total), followed by Cambodia (13.5%) and Laos (11.9%).
 

Brazil: ethanol imports are expected to reach 148 million liters in March (+844.2% YoY), totaling 349 million liters in 1Q 2026 (+306%), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
 

Brazil: the arbitrage for U.S. ethanol imports via Suape (PE) closed after ten consecutive weeks of viability, mainly reflecting the recent increase in U.S. prices.
 

Brazil: DATAGRO estimates indicate a closed arbitrage with a negative spread of 4.0% (US$ 33.58/cbm) for March, widening to 6.7% (US$ 54.80/cbm) in April, already factoring in the 18% tariff.