Minutes from the Copom meeting reinforce caution in the face of an uncertain external scenario.

THE Central Bank (BC) released this Tuesday (24) the minutes of the last meeting of Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), held last week, in which it decided to reduce the Selic by 0.25 percentage points, to 14.75% per yearThe document indicates that the start of the rate-cutting cycle is occurring amidst an environment of high global uncertainty and with inflation still above target. According to the Committee, the external scenario It deteriorated with the worsening of conflicts in Middle East and new doubts about the economic policy of United States, increasing market volatility. No Brazila economic activity showed a slowdown at the end of 2025, as expected, although the labor market Remain resilient. A inflation The Central Bank has shown some recent relief, both in the headline index and in underlying measures, but remains above the target. Expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain unanchored, at 4.1% and 3.8%, respectively, which, according to the minutes, requires a more restrictive monetary policy for a prolonged period. The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) stressed that the cooling of demand is an essential part of the process of inflation converging to the target. It also highlighted the role of… fiscal policy, stating that uncertainties about the public debt and potential setbacks in reforms could raise the interest rate neutrality of the economy. Given this scenario, the committee assessed that an initial cut of smaller magnitude is compatible with the disinflation strategyThe Committee indicated that the next steps These will depend on how the scenario evolves, especially the impacts of external tensions and the dynamics of inflation, reiterating our commitment to… price stability and stance of "serenity and caution".

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.