Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market moved higher again on Wednesday, with May 2026 rising 35 points to US$ 14.80 c/lb, maintaining a constructive bias, still supported by higher oil prices.
Brazil: higher oil prices reinforce support for ethanol in the domestic market via the substitution effect against gasoline, with potential impact on the production mix at the start of 26/27 Center-South crop.
Brazil: according to DATAGRO, gasoline prices at Petrobras refineries are 37.5% below import parity, increasing pressure for price adjustments.
Brazil: sugar shipment nominations pace remained stable this week, with 36 vessels scheduled to load 1.413 mmt (-12.4% YoY). Canada leads destinations with 216 k mt (15.3%), followed by China (14.6%) and Nigeria (11.5%), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
Brazil: at Santos Port, waiting time for berth at CLI 16/17 terminals increased from 10 to 14 days, still below the 20 days observed a year ago.
China: despite expectations of a slight increase in production in 25/26, imports remain strong, totaling 280 k mt in January and 2.05 mmt since October (+34.6% YoY).
China: the increase in purchases comes amid lower international prices, with the import window open at around 7.0% for Brazilian VHP and 8.3% for Thai High-Pol, according to DATAGRO.
China: even with nearly stable consumption, ending stocks could reach only 22.7% of consumption if the country does not import at least 5.0 mmt.
U.S. ethanol production fell 2.9% last week to 1.093 mbpd, down 1.1% YoY. Ethanol stocks rose 3.2% to 26.407 million barrels, still 0.6% below the level seen a year earlier.
U.S. gasoline demand dropped 5.6% WoW to 8.748 mbpd, down 1.0% YoY.
Guatemala: cane crushing in the 25/26 crop reached 17.2 mmt as of March 8th (+4.0% YoY), with sugar production rising 8.3% to 1.81 mmt.
Pakistan: the government decided not to authorize sugar exports in the 25/26 crop, citing concerns over domestic availability, despite industry requests to ship up to 1.0 mmt.
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO Grains Line-up.