Focus Bulletin: Market raises projections for the Selic rate and the IPCA inflation index for 2026.

THE Central Bank (BC) released this Monday (16) a new edition of Focus Bulletin, with financial market projections collected up to last Friday (13).

Inflation (IPCA)

The median of the estimates for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) The 2026 forecast rose from 3.91% to 4.10%. The 2027 projection remained at 3.80%.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The growth expectation of Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The 2026 forecast was slightly revised upwards, from 1.82% to 1.83%. The 2027 estimate remained stable at 1.80%.

Exchange

The projection for dollar The estimate for the end of 2026 was reduced from R$ 5.41 to R$ 5.40. For 2027, the estimate also fell, from R$ 5.50 to R$ 5.47.

Selic rate

The market has raised its forecast for the second consecutive week. Selic rate By the end of 2026, the estimate will increase from 12.13% to 12.25% per year. For 2027, the estimate remained unchanged at 10.50% per year.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.